Introduction
As we step into 2025, the global economy is poised to face a slew of uncertainties shaped by geopolitical tensions, trade policies, and evolving market dynamics. Insights from business leaders and industry experts analyze how these factors could influence various sectors in Thailand, from banking and aviation to technology and energy.
SCB’s Economic Insights
Kris Chantanotoke, CEO of Siam Commercial Bank (SCB), predicts a slowdown in Thailand’s GDP growth to 2.4% for 2025, down from 2.7% in 2024. This deceleration is driven by high household debt and the anticipated trade protectionism under President-elect Donald Trump’s administration. SCB plans to target upper-income clients with secured loans to manage risks while adopting cautious lending practices.
Aviation Sector Optimism
Thai AirAsia’s executive chairman, Tassapon Bijleveld, is more optimistic about the aviation sector, believing that global factors like stable fuel prices will drive recovery. However, he emphasizes that improvements in Thailand’s economic competitiveness will be essential for sustained growth.
Energy Demand Driven by Digital Growth
The proliferation of data centers is expected to significantly increase power demand in Thailand. Chaiwat Kovavisarach of Bangchak Corporation warns that the country’s energy strategy must adapt to support this growth, potentially shifting towards nuclear energy to reduce fossil fuel dependency.
Telecom Sector Challenges
The telecom industry faces static revenue growth, with cost increases projected at 10% against a revenue target of 4-5%. Companies are urged to innovate and offer value-added services in a highly competitive marketplace while navigating government regulations.
Foreign Investment Trends
Vikrom Kromadit of Amata Corporation anticipates a trend of foreign companies relocating operations to Thailand to escape US-China trade tensions. Investment in high-tech industries is expected to surge, especially in electric vehicles and data centers, positioning Thailand favorably for future economic shifts.
Jewellery Sector Resilience
Despite global challenges, the jewellery sector is projected to remain robust. Suriyon Sriorathaikul from Beauty Gems emphasizes the need for regulatory support to navigate rising tariffs and supply chain disruptions effectively.
Technology’s Skills Gap
As AI technology continues to expand, the IT sector is grappling with a talent shortage necessary for innovation. Somchai Sittichaisrichart suggests that increased training and educational initiatives are vital to equip the workforce with necessary skills in this domain.
Infrastructure Investment Opportunities
Bangkok Cable’s Pongsapak Nakornsri foresees continued investments in infrastructure, particularly in the Eastern Economic Corridor. This focus aligns with Thailand’s goal to meet energy demands while advancing towards net-zero emissions by enhancing grid technology.
Consumer Confidence in Property
Looking ahead, property market dynamics are expected to shift as geopolitical factors affect foreign buying patterns. Noble Development’s Thongchai Busrapan notes that stabilization in local politics and tourism could entice foreign investors back into the property market.
Key Takeaways
- The Thai economy faces uncertainty, with GDP growth predictions slowing.
- Key industries like banking, aviation, and technology are adapting through cautious strategies.
- Opportunities arise from geopolitical changes, particularly in foreign investment in EVs and data centers.
- Consumer sectors are urged to innovate and pivot in response to market challenges.
